Supply Chain Enterprise System Architecture Concepts — (2)

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The first article of this series conveys some of the domain knowledge which we need to know before we design an enterprise system architecture. I will talk about sales forecast and inventory.

Sales Forecast

The prediction method for sales Forecast

1. Seasonal Profile

• Seasonal product analysis — A commodity has a predictable pattern of demand every year. For products with strong seasonality, their annual sales trends may be highly correlated.
• If products of this category repeat similar trends every year, we can set up a seasonal profile. Calculate the monthly sales for 12 months, add up the total sales of the previous 12 months, and then divide the monthly sales by the total sales of the 12 months to get an index, and the forecast value can be adjusted through the monthly indices.
• Set up seasonal products through correlation analysis, and assign monthly indices for the forecast value to better improve forecast accuracy

2. Promotions

• Short-term promotional activities
• Holiday promotional activities
• long-term seasonal promotional activities